The $180 Billion Question — Chapter 2
The reference class says winning a Warner Bros. bidding war is losing. Netflix let Paramount win. The deal only makes sense if you're not trying to make money.
The reference class says winning a Warner Bros. bidding war is losing. Netflix let Paramount win. The deal only makes sense if you're not trying to make money.
The model that said "leverage" now watches a war without a defined end state. The only mission with a clear endpoint is nuclear material seizure. Everything else is open-ended.
The national debt is $36 trillion. The deficit hawks have been predicting the explosion for 30 years. The bomb is the wrong metaphor.
The U.S. has assembled more air power in the Middle East than at any point since 2003. It's leverage, not a war plan.
Netflix, Paramount, and the DOJ are fighting over Warner Bros. The prediction markets say it's a coin flip.
Freddie deBoer will win his AI wager with Scott Alexander. But "normal technology" is the most transformative force in human history — and he's testing the wrong timeframe.