Pattern Lab Weekly: January 28, 2026
Thesis momentum across demographics, financial repression, inflation, and reshoring
Thesis Momentum
| Thesis | This Week | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographics | +9 supporting signals | ↗ | High |
| Financial Repression | +6 supporting, 1 challenging | ↗ | Medium |
| Inflation | +3 supporting signals | ↗ | Medium |
| Reshoring | +3 supporting signals | ↗ | Medium |
| AI Knowledge Work | No new signals | → | Medium |
| US-China | No new signals | → | Low |
Signal of the Week
Debt-to-GDP hits 121% while real rates remain positive at 1.88%. This creates the classic financial repression setup: governments desperately need to reduce debt burdens, but current policy hasn't yet shifted to accommodate this reality. The tension between fiscal necessity and monetary policy is building.
Thesis Updates
Demographics momentum accelerates with unemployment ticking up to 4.4% while medical care inflation runs hot at 3.2%. The aging population is simultaneously tightening labor markets and driving healthcare cost pressures—exactly the demographic squeeze we've been tracking.
Financial repression signals are mixed but notable. High debt levels create clear repression incentives, yet real rates remain positive. This suggests we're in the calm before the storm—current policy is unsustainable given fiscal realities.
Inflation shows persistence with both headline and core CPI holding at 2.7%, while shelter costs remain elevated at 3.4%. The "transitory" narrative continues to weaken as price pressures prove more durable than expected.
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