The Theses
Tracked convictions. Living ideas. Each thesis represents a macro trend we're monitoring with signals, predictions, and ongoing analysis.
AI Rollups
The private equity playbook meets AI transformation. Why acquiring traditional businesses and implementing AI efficiency creates outsized returns in the next 24-36 months.
AI & Knowledge Work
How AI transforms knowledge work. Why the next 3 years will reshape how expertise is created, validated, and delivered.
The Degenerate Economy
Financial nihilism becomes a rational strategy. Why young Americans are turning housing unaffordability into speculation-as-entertainment, and what this means for the platforms that capture their attention and capital.
Financial Repression: The Soft Default
When debt reaches levels that can't be repaid through growth or cut through austerity, governments engineer conditions where inflation exceeds interest rates for extended periods. Savers get paid back—in money that buys less. It's the playbook that liquidated post-WWII debt.
The Great Disintermediation
Technology periodically reshuffles power by removing the need for intermediary institutions. Just as the printing press enabled the Reformation, the internet, social media, and AI are disintermediating the institutions of the post-Cold War order. Those following the old pattern will fail, even when they win.
Inflation Pressures
Structural inflation beyond the cycle. Labor markets, demographics, and deglobalization creating persistent price pressures that change the investment calculus.
Reshoring & Deglobalization
Industrial policy is no longer optional for any major economy. Manufacturing returning home, supply chain rewiring, and currency markets now pricing in universal fiscal expansion and government intervention.
US-China Great Power Competition
The US-China relationship is the structural fault line running under every major geopolitical and economic trend of the next decade. Trade, technology, military posture, and alliance systems are all being reshaped by this competition.