The US-China relationship is the structural fault line running under every major geopolitical and economic trend of the next decade. Trade, technology, military posture, and alliance systems are all being reshaped by this competition.
The U.S. conducts no sustained military campaign against Iran through 2026. There may be isolated strikes but no weeks-long air war, no regime-targeting campaign, no all-out assault.
{"resolved_date": "2026-04-03", "what_happened": "Operation Epic Fury began Feb 28, 2026. Joint US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, military facilities, leadership. Khamenei killed. Kharg Island military targets struck Mar 13. 82nd Airborne deploying. 5+ weeks of sustained operations.", "broken_assumption": "US treats carrier deployments as signaling, not preparation for strikes", "failure_category": "actor_behavior", "pattern_class": "Mistook preparation for signaling", "was_knowable": "partially \u2014 piece identified credibility ratchet degrading but bet on pattern holding anyway. Weighting error, not data gap.", "model_update": "When this administration deploys force, treat it as preparation until proven otherwise. The Venezuela playbook is dead.", "difficulty": "medium \u2014 prediction markets had strikes at 41% by end of March when we published in February"}
Japan defense spending stays at or above 2% GDP — no plateau or decline
Takaichi maintains explicit Taiwan defense commitment through 2026
Takaichi remains Prime Minister through 2026
{"last_checked": "2026-04-03", "status_note": "ON TRACK \u2014 Takaichi still PM, won landslide snap election (LDP two-thirds supermajority), hosting Macron summit Apr 1, planning Australia visit. Strongest position of any Japanese PM in years."}
Germany's industrial share of GDP will continue declining below current 20.4%