Prediction Tracker
Every analysis produces trackable predictions. We follow up.
20
Active
0
Due
8
Resolved
50%
Accuracy
Accuracy by Thesis
| Thesis | Resolved | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| us china | 8 / 12 | 50% |
| national debt | 0 / 1 | — |
| ai knowledge work | 0 / 30 | — |
From Opinion Pieces
20 being trackedThere Is No AI Bubble. I'm Living Proof.
AI company revenue will exceed $100 billion ARR by December 31, 2026
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
real examples mid to end of 2026
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Over 2025, it became increasingly easy for a smart person working with a good LLM to build agentic processes
The Biggest Buildup Since Iraq — and the War That Won't Happen
The U.S. conducts no sustained military campaign against Iran through 2026. There may be isolated strikes but no weeks-long air war, no regime-targeting campaign, no all-out assault.
Watershed in the Pacific: Japan Just Made the Coalition Against China Real
Takaichi remains Prime Minister through 2026
Watershed in the Pacific: Japan Just Made the Coalition Against China Real
Takaichi maintains explicit Taiwan defense commitment through 2026
Watershed in the Pacific: Japan Just Made the Coalition Against China Real
Japan defense spending stays at or above 2% GDP — no plateau or decline
The SaaSpocalypse: Why Legacy SaaS is Headed for a Slow Death
Salesforce cannot sustain 10%+ revenue growth for more than one year. It is entering permanent managed decline.
There Is No AI Bubble. I'm Living Proof.
Enterprise AI adoption will exceed 50% seeing measurable ROI by March 2027
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Complex codebases will become trivial to recreate with AI
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
execution success rates increase
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
full movement into it in 2027
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
New company CRM adoption will decline by 20-30%
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Google Vertex and Microsoft Foundry adoption levels will significantly increase as indicator of agentic disruption
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
New company CRM adoption will decline by 20-30%
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Google Vertex and Microsoft Foundry adoption levels will significantly increase as indicator of agentic disruption
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Code maintenance will be replaced by code regeneration
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Agent runtime environments like Google Vertex and Microsoft Foundry will increasingly handle hosting and databases
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Cloud providers will offer increasingly complex forms of databases
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Traditional SaaS UIs will be abstracted away by conversational interfaces
From AI Debates
0 being trackedRecently Resolved
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
Trump's pressure tactics will continue to be more effective at changing EU behavior than previous diplomatic approaches
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
EU defense spending increases won't be sufficient to rebuild industrial capacity and strategic autonomy in single budget cycles
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
Middle powers will remain on periphery rather than gaining influence - world order consolidating rather than rupturing
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
Mark Carney's odds of becoming Canadian Prime Minister are around 50%
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
China will continue deindustrializing Europe rather than offering partnership alternative
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
Germany's industrial share of GDP will continue declining below current 20.4%
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
EU will continue to appease Trump despite rhetoric about resistance to bullying
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
European strategic autonomy will remain limited due to structural political constraints - no unified political authority to enable real autonomy