Scorecard
Every analysis produces trackable predictions. We follow up.
20
Active
0
Due
3
Resolved
67%
Accuracy
Accuracy by Meme
| Meme | Resolved | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| ai knowledge work | 1 / 30 | 100% |
| us china | 2 / 7 | 50% |
| national debt | 0 / 1 | — |
From Opinion Pieces
20 being trackedThe $180 Billion Question — Chapter 2
Paramount-WBD deal closes by Q3 2026 as scheduled. DOJ does not block.
There Is No AI Bubble. I'm Living Proof.
AI company revenue will exceed $100 billion ARR by December 31, 2026
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
real examples mid to end of 2026
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
Germany's industrial share of GDP will continue declining below current 20.4%
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
European strategic autonomy will remain limited due to structural political constraints - no unified political authority to enable real autonomy
Watershed in the Pacific: Japan Just Made the Coalition Against China Real
Takaichi remains Prime Minister through 2026
Watershed in the Pacific: Japan Just Made the Coalition Against China Real
Takaichi maintains explicit Taiwan defense commitment through 2026
Watershed in the Pacific: Japan Just Made the Coalition Against China Real
Japan defense spending stays at or above 2% GDP — no plateau or decline
The SaaSpocalypse: Why Legacy SaaS is Headed for a Slow Death
Salesforce cannot sustain 10%+ revenue growth for more than one year. It is entering permanent managed decline.
There Is No AI Bubble. I'm Living Proof.
Enterprise AI adoption will exceed 50% seeing measurable ROI by March 2027
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Complex codebases will become trivial to recreate with AI
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
execution success rates increase
The $180 Billion Question — Chapter 2
Paramount-WBD announces AI-first content production initiative within 12 months of close, targeting 30%+ cost reduction
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
full movement into it in 2027
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
New company CRM adoption will decline by 20-30%
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Google Vertex and Microsoft Foundry adoption levels will significantly increase as indicator of agentic disruption
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
New company CRM adoption will decline by 20-30%
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Google Vertex and Microsoft Foundry adoption levels will significantly increase as indicator of agentic disruption
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Code maintenance will be replaced by code regeneration
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Agent runtime environments like Google Vertex and Microsoft Foundry will increasingly handle hosting and databases
From AI Debates
0 being trackedRecently Resolved
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
Over 2025, it became increasingly easy for a smart person working with a good LLM to build agentic processes
The Biggest Buildup Since Iraq — and the War That Won't Happen
The U.S. conducts no sustained military campaign against Iran through 2026. There may be isolated strikes but no weeks-long air war, no regime-targeting campaign, no all-out assault.
Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
EU will continue to appease Trump despite rhetoric about resistance to bullying